Boeing projects in its 2026 World Air Cargo Forecast that air cargo traffic will double over the next 20 years, growing 3.5% a year, and that the global freighter fleet will grow 67%, from 2,395 airplanes in 2025 to 4,010 in 2045. Operators will need 2,930 new and converted freighters over that period, with about 55% of deliveries adding capacity and about 45% replacing older, less efficient freighters. Two-thirds of deliveries will be converted passenger airplanes and the rest new-production freighters.
Global air cargo traffic reached a new annual record in 2025, growing nearly 5% from 2024 despite trade volatility and geopolitical disruptions, and Boeing expects trade flows touching Asia to lead growth at about 60% of the global market. E-commerce, direct-to-consumer models and demand for high-tech goods are driving growth, and according to IATA data cited by Boeing, more than 70% of AI-related goods were transported by air in 2025. Dedicated freighters are expected to carry more than half of global air cargo traffic in the long term, while integrators offering time-definite and express services are expected to reach nearly 25% of traffic by 2045.
Boeing released the forecast on October 28 at the International Air Cargo Association's Air Cargo Forum in Miami. The company notes that goods carried by air represent less than 1% of global trade by volume but roughly one-third of trade value, and that about 55% of air cargo traffic, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers, has historically moved on main-deck freighters.