According to data from aviation analysts OAG and Midas Aviation, global airline capacity has increased by just 1% year-on-year during the summer season. This rate falls significantly short of the 3% growth originally forecast for the period, largely as a result of carriers adjusting their flight schedules and reallocating capacity in response to geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Despite the broader global slowdown, Africa's domestic aviation sector has proven remarkably resilient. Speaking during an online panel discussion hosted by OAG on July 29, 2026, Sean Mendes, director at aviation consultancy seanmendes.com, stated that while ticket prices have risen and growth has slowed in certain sub-regions, the continent's air travel market has avoided contraction and continues to withstand global market shocks.
Nigeria has emerged as a key focal point of domestic aviation expansion across the continent. John Grant, chief analyst at OAG, highlighted that Nigeria's domestic aviation capacity surged by 36% year-on-year. He noted that this growth was substantially driven by Nigeria's domestication of the Cape Town Convention, which has given international aircraft lessors greater confidence to execute dry leases with local airlines. Major leasing firms, including AirCap, have subsequently started placing airframes directly into the Nigerian market.
This strategic shift represents a notable change from previous operational patterns, where Nigerian air carriers depended heavily on European wet-lease ACMI providers to cover seasonal demand spikes during the winter and Christmas periods. Industry analysts, including Deirdre Fulton of Midas Aviation, also observed that passenger booking windows across Africa remain extremely compressed, with a large volume of tickets purchased just one day prior to travel. Experts further anticipate that market fragmentation in Nigeria will eventually lead to industry consolidation through strategic alliances and partnerships rather than direct acquisitions.
