Airbus projects the worldwide fleet of dedicated freighter aircraft to grow 46% from 2,360 in 2025 to 3,460 aircraft by 2045, according to its 2026 Cargo Global Market Forecast announced at the Cargo Facts Symposium. The forecast sees a requirement for 2,670 new freighters, mainly to replace older models (1,580) and also for growth (1,090). Of the total, 1,140 will be single-aisle, 860 mid-size widebodies and 670 large widebody aircraft; some 970 will be new-build and 1,700 converted from passenger aircraft.
With long-term trade projected to expand at a 2.9% compound annual growth rate, global air cargo traffic is forecast to grow 3.2% annually over the next two decades, despite high fuel prices, geopolitical disruption and supply chain constraints. Asia-Pacific will continue to lead international air cargo traffic, with routes to North America the largest at 3.8% annual growth, followed by Europe. Regional demand for the 2,670 deliveries will be led by North America (925) and Asia-Pacific (850), together two-thirds of global demand, followed by Europe and CIS (515), Latin America (165), the Middle East (125) and Africa (90). Airbus notes air cargo carries less than 1% of global trade by weight but more than 30% by value, and that computers and high-technology goods in air cargo have doubled in value over three years to reach 15% in 2026, with e-commerce also driving demand.
