Cirium released its annual fleet forecast on October 13, 2026, and expects manufacturers to remain unable to meet airline demand throughout the rest of the 2020s. Airlines waiting for new aircraft face several more years of delivery shortages, with engine availability, supplier bottlenecks and certification delays expected to constrain production until at least 2030.
Cirium forecasts about 43,000 deliveries of new commercial passenger and cargo aircraft between 2026 and 2045, worth $3.2 trillion at 2026 prices. The company says the jets and turboprops will allow airlines to expand their fleets and replace aging aircraft.
The International Air Transport Association said airlines were short of more than 5,000 fuel-efficient aircraft they had expected to receive by then. IATA also said the aircraft order backlog exceeded 18,000. With fewer replacements available, carriers are keeping older airplanes flying longer, spending more on maintenance and paying higher lease rates.
