A research study led by the University of Surrey and published in the Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate warns that space weather poses a greater risk to aviation safety than current industry procedures fully account for. The research examined the effects of powerful bursts of solar energetic particles reaching the Earth's atmosphere, causing elevated radiation levels at normal commercial cruising altitudes of 8 to 14 kilometers.
The researchers highlighted significant risks to aircraft electronics, noting that high-energy solar particles can trigger Single Event Upsets (SEUs), or "bit flips," which alter electronic circuit states. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) space weather manual confirms that semiconductor avionics can malfunction during radiation events and SEUs can force computer systems to reset. While aircraft feature fault-tolerant redundancy, the Surrey study estimates SEU rates could increase from a few per hour under normal conditions to thousands during extreme space weather.
Historical evidence underlines the potential severity of solar storms. High-altitude radiation measurements reached nearly ten times normal levels during a major solar storm in November 2025. Modeling of the powerful February 1956 solar event indicates that a storm of comparable strength could expose passengers to radiation equivalent to roughly a year's worth of typical cosmic radiation received during normal flights.
Polar and near-polar routes are particularly vulnerable during solar radiation storms because the Earth's magnetic field offers less shielding near the poles. According to ICAO, space weather events can also disrupt high-frequency radio communications and degrade satellite-based navigation and surveillance systems. Study lead author Dr. Fan Lei cited a recent Airbus A320 (ICAO type code A320) grounding linked to cosmic radiation as evidence that space weather is already affecting flight operations, calling for clearer operational thresholds for rerouting or grounding aircraft.
